I have just come back from three weeks in China and spent some of that period in provinces that are close to Tibet (e.g. Sichuan, Yunnan). In those provinces, there is the influence of Tibetans that live there and this fact sparked my renewed interest in Tibet and its history.
A must-read book about Tibet's history that I found is called "The Snow Leopard and the Dragon" by Melvyn C. Goldstein, Professor on Tibetan history. It opened my eyes for a series of facts that have gotten snowed under in the propaganda-wars of Tibetans living in exile and the Chinese government. So what follows are my conclusions after reading this book and others and having been in China myself.
In the first place, Tibet has a long history of being politically dependent by other nations: first it was the Mongols who had a strong say in the political ruling of the country, then it was the (Mongol-imposed) Chinese Qing dynasty that always had representatives in Tibet's political system. Only when the Qing dynasty fell in the early 20th century and there was an effective power-vacuum in China until the Communists under Mao took over, did the Tibetans have some time to decide on things themselves.
What struck me more was the fact that until the middle of the 20th century, Tibet's society was effectively a feudalistic state where an aristocratic elite ruled people that were effectively living in a form of serfdom or slavery. The Tibetan society was, for western standards, medieval, given that it was based on a traditional form of Buddhism that had remained the same for centuries.
When Mao took over China, he basically continued marching into Tibet in 1950 - in his words to "liberate" them from the remainders of the "reactionary" government that was there still from the Imperial times. The Tibetans had no army or defence strategy whatsoever to oppose the Chinese forces, so were basically overrun and obviously felt invaded. The international community was not very interested in opposing China at the time in order not to antagonise them, so Tibet was effectively left alone.
What followed afterwards in Tibet is very much in line with what happened everywhere in China: the Great Leap Forward mismanaged agriculture and led to famine in all of China. The Cultural Revolution destroyed all culture in China. These effects were not unique to Tibet, but led to disasters all over China. Only after Mao died, both in Tibet and in the rest of China, religious and cultural expressions were allowed again. Actually, nowadays there are lots and lots of temples in full function all over China and I have seen no obvious signs of restrictions in cultural or religious expression. In fact, China is a much more westernised country than I expected, with KFCs on every corner of the street and very good infrastructure.
So what is the issue with Tibet? There is a couple:
* Tibet is flooded with Chinese workers who have been introduced to modernise its society. Given the feudalistic state of it before 1950, modernisation was long overdue. However, due to the great number of Chinese working in Tibet, the Tibetans feel overwhelmed and outnumbered and fear for their culture and religion.
* Uprisings in Tibet, some of which were supported by the US, have been hit down by the Chinese police and army very brutally - this is, by the way, no different than what happened recently in Urumqi in Inner Mongolia. Claims of "genocide" by some are exaggerated, though.
* The Chinese government is never going to give up Tibet, not because there is anything to get there in an economic sense, but because it has become a prestige issue now.
* The Dalai Lama and other Tibetans in exile use a different definition of "Tibet" than the Chinese, the former including parts of e.g Sichuan that have in majority Tibetans living in it. This semantic issue needs to be overcome in order for negotiations about Tibet's future
* Both sides in the conflict have suggested various agreements in the past that were subsequently rejected by the other party. There seems to be little flexibility on either side to move to a consensus.
* Both sides in the conflict seem to be biding their time: the Chinese may just be waiting for the Dalai Lama to die, which starts a period of at least 15 years in which his reincarnation is to be found and accepted by the Tibetans as their leader. The Tibetans are supposedly waiting for Communism (or its current watered-down implementation) in China to disappear, which seems to be taking even longer.
* The international community has been lame trying to find a solution, given that China is economically interesting, so needs to be befriended and Tibet in economically uninteresting, hence the West does not care.
So what is a way forward for Tibet?
It seems unavoidable to me that Tibet will remain part of China for the foreseeable future. Not only because China is never going to agree to split it off, but also because I have not seen any plans from the Tibetan side to build a modern society that does not fall back into the medieval social practices from before 1950. Furthermore, I believe theocratic politics is not the way forward: a Buddhist theocracy cannot fulfil contemporary demands of society, similarly to how Islamic theocracies cannot meet demands of modern society. The one good thing China has done is modernise Tibet's society to bring it into the 20th/21st century and I cannot imagine that the people of Tibet want to go back to the middle ages. What needs to be ensured if Tibet remains part of China, though, is that the Tibetans get fuller authority to express their religion, culture and use their language at schools and elsewhere. This is already partially the case, but the influx of Chinese people into Tibet risks marginalising the original Tibetan people and their culture.
So I believe it is a matter of give-and-take: an independent Tibet is a dream that has historically hardly ever been reality, so seems futile to pursue. Instead, a generous form of autonomy within the overall Chinese political system, with guarantees from China with respect to preservation of language, religion and culture, is the best Tibetans can hope for. At the same time, Tibet should embrace modern times and find a place for those cultural aspects in a society that is part of the 21st century. Propaganda wars are not going to help there, but making concrete plans and reopening realistic negotiations with the other party in the conflict are.